林瑞源:大選將淪為大混戰

忠政快訊     2017-05-16     檢舉

大馬的政治水平日益走下坡,簡直是到了慘不忍睹的地步,最新的例子是伊斯蘭黨宣布與公正黨斷交,卻又死賴在雪州政府不走。

如果一對夫妻公告離婚,晚上又睡在同一張床,這是甚麽關係?斷絕關係,還同朝為官,這不是人格分裂嗎?

大馬政壇這4年來,發生了許多不講原則及道德的事件,例如,馬華和民政等國陣成員黨,明知道巫統與伊黨私底下有政治交易,巫統才會放行讓伊黨主席哈迪在國會提呈修改355法令的私人動議,他們卻視若無睹,7月國會復會時,同樣的戲碼又可能重新上演。

回到伊黨長老協商理事會核准與公正黨斷交,這其實是預料中事,因為伊黨領導層早就預設立場,他們也自我膨脹,看不清政治現實。

可笑的是,公正黨之前還對伊黨存有幻想,安華及旺阿茲莎還浪費時間反駁伊黨提出的斷交3理由。

為何伊黨死賴不走?伊黨雪州主席沙烈漢給予的理由是,為了讓伊黨行政議員繼續做好事,同時阻止行動黨干「壞事」。這只是藉口,真正的原因是捨不得官職。

雪州共有56個州議席,公正黨13席丶行動黨14席丶伊黨13席丶誠信黨2席丶巫統12席,以及兩名獨立人士。希盟成員黨的議席加起來已超過半數,伊黨退出推不倒希盟政府;若伊黨退出,它的3個行政議員職將由誠信黨及行動黨瓜分,這是伊黨不能接受的。但是,州政府內已經沒有朋友,欲走還留,這樣的斷交毫無原則可言。

雪州大臣阿茲敏看準伊黨的心態,也樂得保留原狀,以免雪州政治不穩定;但是根據報道,他要求伊黨3名行政議員自行辭官,這是還以顏色,要伊黨難堪。

拖拖拉拉了4年,伊黨終於與希盟斬斷關係,這也預示來屆大選將是一個非常開放的選舉,將出現大混戰,包括各種意識形態的大混戰。

伊黨野心勃勃,計劃上陣超過100個國會議席,期望贏得60至80席。即使贏得80席,伊黨也無法執政中央,除非是和巫統及其他政黨組織聯合政府。

可是,大家都知道伊黨有多少斤兩,它不可能贏得比上屆大選更多的議席,因為走向宗教保守路線,將嚇跑非穆斯林。

根據各種民調和分析,巫統在馬來區的支持率已經跌至30多巴仙,伊黨20%;Invoke政策倡議中心(I-CPI)今年4月展開的民調也顯示,在巫統丶公正黨及伊黨之間,有29.8%的受訪者將投選巫統,22.3%支持公正黨,只有11.2%投選伊黨。

若出現三角戰,伊黨必敗無疑。該黨要漁翁撒網丶拉長戰線,也肯定首尾不能兼顧,譬如,伊黨宣布將攻打聯邦直轄區的9個國會議席,包括公正黨的峇都及班底谷,以及行動黨的泗岩沫;以峇都為例,該選區是混合區,上屆大選馬來選民44.41%丶華裔37.76%丶印度人16.21%,若伊黨只獲得20%馬來選票,加上少許非穆斯林票,將會慘敗。

伊黨在城市化的雪州及中馬地區也會兵敗如山倒,因為城市馬來人更關注國家課題;柔佛及吉打有慕尤丁和馬哈迪的勢力,伊黨也討不到便宜,就只能在馬來選民占多數的吉蘭丹及登嘉樓保住幾個國席。

但是,令人擔憂的是,伊黨為了爭奪選票,將大打宗教牌。印尼宗教極端主義崛起丶鍾萬學入獄是一記警鐘。

大選大混戰可能會使種族丶神權丶民粹主義如脫韁野馬,陰謀家丶野心家伺機而動,恐加劇政治危機。

LIM SUE GOAN:The Big Confusion that is GE14

Malaysia's political standards are taking a dive, to an extent way beyond what we can believe, the latest instance being PAS' decision to break up with PKR but is reluctant to let go of Selangor state posts.

Like a couple that has publicly proclaimed their divorce, yet still sharing the same bed at night. What kind of relation could that be? Breaking ties but still clinging to government posts, this I could only explain in terms of a split personality!

The Malaysian politics has portrayed a fair share of unprincipled and immoral incidents during the past four years. For example, MCA, Gerakan and other BN component parties were well aware of Umno's secret deals with PAS such that Hadi Awang could be given the green light to table his private member's bill on RUU355, but they chose to keep their eyes shut. This same thing will pop up again in July when the Parliament sitting resumes.

It is within anticipation that PAS syura council approved the break-up with PKR because PAS leaders have a preset stand and they are living in their own world of self conceit that they hardly see the prevailing political reality in this country.

Weirdly, PKR still fantasized about a possible reconciliation with PAS shorty before that, while Anwar and Kak Wan still spent time refuting PAS' three reasons for severing ties.

Why then is PAS still stubbornly glued to the Selangor administration? State commissioner Sallehen Mukhyi explained that this was to allow PAS excos to do good work and prevent DAP from doing a "bad job".

Out of the 56 state assembly seats in Selangor, PKR holds 13, DAP 14. PAS 12, Amanah 2, Umno 12 and independent 2. Pakatan Harapan parties' seats put together should still make a simple majority, and PAS' withdrawal is therefore not going to bring down the state government anyway.

If PAS quits, the three state exco positions will be distributed between Amanah and DAP, which is the last thing PAS wants to see.

Menteri besar Azmin Ali seems to able to read PAS' mind, and is more than delighted to keep the status quo undisturbed in a bid to evade any political instability. Nevertheless, it has been reported that Azmin has asked the three PAS exco members to resign on their own accord, which is seen as a retaliatory move aimed at embarrassing PAS.

Having dragged things on for four years, the Islamist party is eventually resolved to cut all the ties with Pakatan, meaning the coming general election is going to be a very open battle. Multi-cornered fights could be the norm.

PAS has sky-high ambitions, planning to run in more than a hundred parliamentary seats with an eye on winning 60 to 80.

Even if it manages to win 80 seats, it will still not form the federal government unless it teams up with Umno or other parties.

But, we all know how far this party could go. There is little likelihood it would ever win more seats than what it did last time because the party's conservative religious roadmap would easily scare off non-Muslims.

Surveys and analyses show that Umno's support in Malay-majority seats has slipped below 40% vis-à-vis PAS' 20%.

A poll conducted by INVOKE Center for Policy Initiatives in April also shows that 29.8% of respondents will vote for Umno, 22.3% for PKR and only 11.2% for PAS.

PAS will easily be flushed out in the event of a three-cornered fight!

Meanwhile, the party has expressed its intention of contesting in nine parliamentary seats in KL Federal Territory, including PKR's Batu and Lembah Pantai, and DAP's Segambut.

Take Batu for instance, the mixed constituency had 44.41% Malay, 37.76% Chinese and 16.21% Indian voters in GE13. If PAS could secure only 20% of Malay votes, plus a handful of non-Muslim votes, it will be badly thrashed.

The party is set for a humiliating defeat in highly urbanized Selangor and the central region because urban Malays are more concerned about national issues than religion; whereas in Johor and Kedah, Muhyiddin and Mahathir still have substantial influences and PAS will not get its way any easier.

It can only count on predominantly Malay states like Kelantan and Terengganu to retain some of its seats.

What is alarming is that PAS will very likely play up religious issues in its quest for more electoral support. The rise of religious radicalization in Indonesia and the conviction of Ahok should sound an alarm bell.

Racism, theocracy and populism could go wild in an election war characterized by conspirators and adventurists capitalizing on the situation to create havoc and deepen the already acute political crisis.