林瑞源:大选将沦为大混战

忠政快讯     2017-05-16     检举

大马的政治水平日益走下坡,简直是到了惨不忍睹的地步,最新的例子是伊斯兰党宣布与公正党断交,却又死赖在雪州政府不走。

如果一对夫妻公告离婚,晚上又睡在同一张床,这是什么关系?断绝关系,还同朝为官,这不是人格分裂吗?

大马政坛这4年来,发生了许多不讲原则及道德的事件,例如,马华和民政等国阵成员党,明知道巫统与伊党私底下有政治交易,巫统才会放行让伊党主席哈迪在国会提呈修改355法令的私人动议,他们却视若无睹,7月国会复会时,同样的戏码又可能重新上演。

回到伊党长老协商理事会核准与公正党断交,这其实是预料中事,因为伊党领导层早就预设立场,他们也自我膨胀,看不清政治现实。

可笑的是,公正党之前还对伊党存有幻想,安华及旺阿兹莎还浪费时间反驳伊党提出的断交3理由。

为何伊党死赖不走?伊党雪州主席沙烈汉给予的理由是,为了让伊党行政议员继续做好事,同时阻止行动党干“坏事”。这只是借口,真正的原因是舍不得官职。

雪州共有56个州议席,公正党13席丶行动党14席丶伊党13席丶诚信党2席丶巫统12席,以及两名独立人士。希盟成员党的议席加起来已超过半数,伊党退出推不倒希盟政府;若伊党退出,它的3个行政议员职将由诚信党及行动党瓜分,这是伊党不能接受的。但是,州政府内已经没有朋友,欲走还留,这样的断交毫无原则可言。

雪州大臣阿兹敏看准伊党的心态,也乐得保留原状,以免雪州政治不稳定;但是根据报道,他要求伊党3名行政议员自行辞官,这是还以颜色,要伊党难堪。

拖拖拉拉了4年,伊党终于与希盟斩断关系,这也预示来届大选将是一个非常开放的选举,将出现大混战,包括各种意识形态的大混战。

伊党野心勃勃,计划上阵超过100个国会议席,期望赢得60至80席。即使赢得80席,伊党也无法执政中央,除非是和巫统及其他政党组织联合政府。

可是,大家都知道伊党有多少斤两,它不可能赢得比上届大选更多的议席,因为走向宗教保守路线,将吓跑非穆斯林。

根据各种民调和分析,巫统在马来区的支持率已经跌至30多巴仙,伊党20%;Invoke政策倡议中心(I-CPI)今年4月展开的民调也显示,在巫统丶公正党及伊党之间,有29.8%的受访者将投选巫统,22.3%支持公正党,只有11.2%投选伊党。

若出现三角战,伊党必败无疑。该党要渔翁撒网丶拉长战线,也肯定首尾不能兼顾,譬如,伊党宣布将攻打联邦直辖区的9个国会议席,包括公正党的峇都及班底谷,以及行动党的泗岩沫;以峇都为例,该选区是混合区,上届大选马来选民44.41%丶华裔37.76%丶印度人16.21%,若伊党只获得20%马来选票,加上少许非穆斯林票,将会惨败。

伊党在城市化的雪州及中马地区也会兵败如山倒,因为城市马来人更关注国家课题;柔佛及吉打有慕尤丁和马哈迪的势力,伊党也讨不到便宜,就只能在马来选民占多数的吉兰丹及登嘉楼保住几个国席。

但是,令人担忧的是,伊党为了争夺选票,将大打宗教牌。印尼宗教极端主义崛起丶锺万学入狱是一记警钟。

大选大混战可能会使种族丶神权丶民粹主义如脱缰野马,阴谋家丶野心家伺机而动,恐加剧政治危机。

LIM SUE GOAN:The Big Confusion that is GE14

Malaysia's political standards are taking a dive, to an extent way beyond what we can believe, the latest instance being PAS' decision to break up with PKR but is reluctant to let go of Selangor state posts.

Like a couple that has publicly proclaimed their divorce, yet still sharing the same bed at night. What kind of relation could that be? Breaking ties but still clinging to government posts, this I could only explain in terms of a split personality!

The Malaysian politics has portrayed a fair share of unprincipled and immoral incidents during the past four years. For example, MCA, Gerakan and other BN component parties were well aware of Umno's secret deals with PAS such that Hadi Awang could be given the green light to table his private member's bill on RUU355, but they chose to keep their eyes shut. This same thing will pop up again in July when the Parliament sitting resumes.

It is within anticipation that PAS syura council approved the break-up with PKR because PAS leaders have a preset stand and they are living in their own world of self conceit that they hardly see the prevailing political reality in this country.

Weirdly, PKR still fantasized about a possible reconciliation with PAS shorty before that, while Anwar and Kak Wan still spent time refuting PAS' three reasons for severing ties.

Why then is PAS still stubbornly glued to the Selangor administration? State commissioner Sallehen Mukhyi explained that this was to allow PAS excos to do good work and prevent DAP from doing a "bad job".

Out of the 56 state assembly seats in Selangor, PKR holds 13, DAP 14. PAS 12, Amanah 2, Umno 12 and independent 2. Pakatan Harapan parties' seats put together should still make a simple majority, and PAS' withdrawal is therefore not going to bring down the state government anyway.

If PAS quits, the three state exco positions will be distributed between Amanah and DAP, which is the last thing PAS wants to see.

Menteri besar Azmin Ali seems to able to read PAS' mind, and is more than delighted to keep the status quo undisturbed in a bid to evade any political instability. Nevertheless, it has been reported that Azmin has asked the three PAS exco members to resign on their own accord, which is seen as a retaliatory move aimed at embarrassing PAS.

Having dragged things on for four years, the Islamist party is eventually resolved to cut all the ties with Pakatan, meaning the coming general election is going to be a very open battle. Multi-cornered fights could be the norm.

PAS has sky-high ambitions, planning to run in more than a hundred parliamentary seats with an eye on winning 60 to 80.

Even if it manages to win 80 seats, it will still not form the federal government unless it teams up with Umno or other parties.

But, we all know how far this party could go. There is little likelihood it would ever win more seats than what it did last time because the party's conservative religious roadmap would easily scare off non-Muslims.

Surveys and analyses show that Umno's support in Malay-majority seats has slipped below 40% vis-à-vis PAS' 20%.

A poll conducted by INVOKE Center for Policy Initiatives in April also shows that 29.8% of respondents will vote for Umno, 22.3% for PKR and only 11.2% for PAS.

PAS will easily be flushed out in the event of a three-cornered fight!

Meanwhile, the party has expressed its intention of contesting in nine parliamentary seats in KL Federal Territory, including PKR's Batu and Lembah Pantai, and DAP's Segambut.

Take Batu for instance, the mixed constituency had 44.41% Malay, 37.76% Chinese and 16.21% Indian voters in GE13. If PAS could secure only 20% of Malay votes, plus a handful of non-Muslim votes, it will be badly thrashed.

The party is set for a humiliating defeat in highly urbanized Selangor and the central region because urban Malays are more concerned about national issues than religion; whereas in Johor and Kedah, Muhyiddin and Mahathir still have substantial influences and PAS will not get its way any easier.

It can only count on predominantly Malay states like Kelantan and Terengganu to retain some of its seats.

What is alarming is that PAS will very likely play up religious issues in its quest for more electoral support. The rise of religious radicalization in Indonesia and the conviction of Ahok should sound an alarm bell.

Racism, theocracy and populism could go wild in an election war characterized by conspirators and adventurists capitalizing on the situation to create havoc and deepen the already acute political crisis.